The current predictions of rises in sea levels over the coming decades because of climate change, in the opinion of Carlyon Bay Watch,  means the issue of flooding of the proposed development on the Carlyon Bay beaches becomes increasingly urgent. 

The developer's publicity pictures, portraying an artist's impression of apartments, gardens and beautiful white sands beneath blue skies and bathed in sunshine, naturally do not give prospective buyers the alternative scene we in Cornwall know so well.  Grey skies, gale-force winds, lashing rain and stormy seas breaking over beaches and promenades - you cannot pretend that Carlyon Bay offers the same climate as the Spanish costas (even the bay's most ardent admirers cannot pretend the sand is beautiful and white, in truth it is light grey, coarse and gritty). 

In his report following the 2006 Public Inquiry, the Inspector pointed out what had become obvious during the days of evidence given to the Inquiry.  Namely 49 'units' or apartments would not achieve the 1 in 75 year standard of protection - in other words they would be damaged in the sort of storm which would be expected to occur once in every 75 years.  Other areas of the development would be affected also by waves crashing over the sea wall - on to the promenade, on to the public areas and on to the roadway linking Crinnis and Shorthorn beaches.  

The developer had said during the inquiry that "walls would be designed to resist the overtopping wave forces and the windows would be provided with laminated glass and storm shutters in order to prevent damage".   Evidence was also given by Ampersand that if a particularly severe storm was forecast, then the site might have to be evacuated.  At the very least, storm shutters would have to be secured and the promenade cleared - not a very reassuring or attractive scenario for the holiday makers in CBW's view.

The developer also argued that the storm warning system would give ample notice of a big storm and that those holiday makers in the most vulnerable apartments on Shorthorn would be moved to safety.  As the Inspector pointed out in his report "that would rely on the accuracy of the warning system and on the staff's response to the warning, neither of which are in my view guaranteed".

He went on: "In the worst scenario, the applicants envisaged that they could evacuate the limited number of people in vehicles driven by their on-site trained staff.  The overtopping rates appear to be in the range that would make that possible, but in such a situation, I very much doubt if the other people at lower risk would be prepared to sit and wait for the storm.  They would be very likely to try to escape themselves, causing chaos on this link road and probably on the part of Beach Road which acts as the site access."

This picture taken in Par in 1928 shows the area behind the Par estuary has always been prone to flooding.

On its website, the Environment Agency produces detailed maps denoting "High Risk" and "Medium/low risk" flood zones.  Even without taking into account the proposed sea defences across Carlyon Bay the following areas are designated "High Risk":  

Bethel, Holmbush, Boscundle, Cuddra Plantation, Britannia Inn, Tregehan. Carvear, Mid-Cornwall Business Park, Cypress Avenue, Imerys Laboratories, Crinnis and Shorthorn beaches, Wyevale Centre, Par Docks, Lower Par Lane, St Blazey Road, Par Running Track and  playing fields, Par Beach caravan park, Par Station, Pontsmill and Treesmill.  The A390 would be cut between Kittows Corner and the level crossing at St Blazey.

Little attention has been paid to the probability that the construction of the nearly one-mile long sea defences will substantially alter the direction of tidal surges in this area of Carlyon Bay.  At spring tides in storm conditions, tidal surges and wave patterns have been known to shift huge quantities of sand to and from Crinnis, Shorthorn and Polgaver.  Par Harbour has for decades required constant dredging, largely for this reason, but the fear is that if the churn action on the waves caused by the sea wall scour out the sand in the manner predicted in one of the expert reports presented to the Inquiry, then it almost certainly must move eastward into the Par estuary.

This means that the resultant build-up of the sea bed around the estuary mouth will enable even a low-level storm surge to travel quickly into some of the High Risk areas designated above, since they are all directly connected to the Par estuary.